This year’s conference regarding security in Munich has recorded a simple fact – the old world order seems to be dead. And three states that have more or less right to claim the prefix “over” have turned into three different threats to global security.
Of course, this year’s Munich conference appeared relatively boring. It managed, for example, without such bright episodes as the proclamation of a new Cold War by Volodymyr Putin in 2007, or some more extravagant stunts. And there were relatively few of the “first magnitude” leaders.
But even without that the tone of this year’s event turned out slightly funeral. This is due to the outcomes of the previous year, and an analysis of the current security situation.
Nowhere disappeared Islamic terrorism. Nowhere disappeared Ukraine with the war in Donbas, and Syria with the war throughout the country. Nowhere disappeared Volodymyr Putin, only more and more cyber attacks on the political life of Western democracies were added to military adventures. China has built artificial islands, “settling” their missile stations and their garrisons, and continues to do so. Playing an interesting game of “who eats whom” with the US striking forces in the region.
The only, but very significant difference from the alarming conference of the previous year, is that the European and Asian participants now cannot count on “core” of the world security system. The USA foreign policy has become so chaotic that, nobody is aware not only in Kiev or Moscow, but also in Berlin and London, about its further direction. And perhaps even in Washington.
No, of course, the Pentagon chief James Mathis tried to convince the audience that Donald Trump, who called NATO “an outdated alliance” did not mean anything bad. And according to the Minister of Defense of the USA, the head of the White House “fully supports NATO” and only slightly considers it necessary to “transform” the alliance so that it “meets the requirements of today.” And the Vice President Mike Pence appeared with approximately the same message.
They both would be almost convincing if not for the simple fact that everybody heard Trump’s statement about “an outdated NATO”. But no one had somehow managed to hear from the mouth of Trump, or at least to read in his Twitter, about the intention of the American president to transform and rebuild the unit, giving it new power and opportunities.
Thus Europe, and not only Europe, but almost all “golden billion” of inhabitants of the planet find themselves surrounded by three flushed with nuclear weapon states. One of them conducts openly aggressive policy of attacking whomsoever it is able to attack, and does subversion and mischief to all the others to the extent of forces.
The second is trying to expand its borders by means of artificial islands and natural missile bases. And the third conducts unpredictable policy, promising peace and happiness to allies and rejection of the foreign policy to its own citizens. And it seems ready to start the war with another one.
Whereby the popularity of Extreme Rights, populists and other very specific political contingent is growing in Europe.
All this in sum allowed Wolfgang Ischinger, the head of the Munich conference, to declare that global security has been the “most stable” comparing to any other point since 1945. Including the Caribbean crisis times and other pre-apocalyptic moments. And a few days before the conference, Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council, said that at the moment Europe is under threat from all sides. For the US have also turned into a threat to European security.
The problem is not only and not even in that the things have gone awry. The real problem is that the other countries do not have not only completed but even expressed answer to these challenges in the field of security. And the only force that “is trying to hold the world together” is perhaps Germany. Opportunities of which are very, very limited because of the practical absence of the armed forces.
Therefore Ukraine which still conducts the policy based on containment of Russia by the West, judging by tone of the Munich conference, we should be prepared for the fact that even this modest support will disappear at any moment. It seems that after the disappearance of established world order of global security almost any surprises are possible. Unfortunately, most of them do not fall under the category of pleasant.